Allegion plc is an Irish-domiciled, global security-products and access-solutions company that helps keep people and assets safe and secure across commercial, institutional, and residential buildings. The company operates through two reportable segments — Allegion Americas and Allegion International — and sells mechanical and electronic locks, door controls, exit devices, doors and door systems, access-control systems, workforce-productivity software, and aftermarket services. Its portfolio includes well-known brands such as CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, Von Duprin, Stanley Access Technologies, AXA, Gainsborough, and ELATEC. Allegion became a standalone public company in 2013 following its separation from Ingersoll Rand and today employs approximately 13,300 people worldwide.
Source: 10-K PDF pp. 6–12; 10-Q PDF p. 23. Dashboard: Date Added to S&P 500 — 2013-12-02; Founded 1908; Headquarters Dublin, Ireland.

2. Executive Summary

  • FY2025 performance was solid: revenue rose 7.8% to $4,067.3 million ($4.067 billion), operating income rose 10.1% to $859.5 million**, and diluted EPS rose **9.1%** to **$7.44. Cash from operations increased 16.1% to $783.8 million.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 31, 54, 57.
  • 9M 2026 accelerated: revenue increased 10.7% to $3,357.7 million ($3.358 billion), operating income rose 13.0% to $734.6 million**, net earnings rose **9.5%** to **$543.6 million, and diluted EPS rose 10.5% to $6.33. Q3 2026 revenue rose 9.6%, operating income rose 21.7%, and diluted EPS rose 18.8%.
    Source: 10-Q PDF pp. 4, 24.
  • Market performance (2026 YTD through Oct 26): stock returned +10.76% vs S&P 500 +11.93%; annualized volatility 32.36% vs index 12.92%; correlation only 0.163 — indicating low co-movement with the broad market.
    Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard.
  • Valuation is above its own history: PE 22.17x sits at the 87.3rd percentile of its 205-observation history (historical average 20.01x), though it remains a 33.71% discount to the Industrials sector average of 33.44x. Forward PE 17.68x, PEG 2.26 (flagged “Expensive”).
    Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard.
  • Balance sheet remains leveraged but manageable: at December 31, 2025, total debt was $1,980.1 million ($1.980 billion), cash was $356.2 million**, and net debt / FY2025 EBITDA was approximately **1.64x**. At September 30, 2026, total debt was **$2,032.0 million, cash was $388.1 million, and net debt / 9M EBITDA was 1.95x on an unannualized basis.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 55, 57; 10-Q PDF pp. 5–6, 11.
  • Acquisitions are a key growth lever: Allegion completed multiple acquisitions in 2025 and 2026, including ELATEC, Trimco, Gatewise, Waitwhile, UAP, Brisant, DCI, and Overly. These expand electronics, software, access control, and door-system capabilities, but increase goodwill/intangibles and integration risk.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 63–64; 10-Q PDF pp. 7–8.
  • Audit opinion is clean: PwC issued an unqualified opinion on the FY2025 financial statements and effective internal control over financial reporting. The only critical audit matter is revenue recognition; it is not an audit objection.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 52–53.
  • Ownership is institutionally dominated: institutional holders 45.79%, mutual funds 18.38%, insiders only 0.34%. Top holders include BlackRock 8.00%, Vanguard entities ~12.43% combined, Boston Partners 5.46%, State Street 5.11%.
    Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard (ownership data as of 2026-09-30).
  • FY2026 projection (Section 16): based on 9M actuals and Q4 seasonality, revenue ≈ $4.50 billion**, net income ≈ **$729 million, diluted EPS ≈ $8.50**; target price range **$170–$190 depending on multiple applied. This is a projection, not company guidance.
  • Principal investor risks: cyclical construction demand, tariffs/trade policy, FX, inflation, acquisition integration, goodwill/impairment risk, leverage, variable-rate debt, cybersecurity, tax/transfer-pricing risk, environmental/product liability, and customer concentration (top 10 customers ≈26% of FY2025 revenue).
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 14–24, 11.

3. Business Overview

Allegion’s product and service portfolio includes:

  • Door controls, door control systems, and exit devices: LCN, Von Duprin, CISA, Stanley Access Technologies.
  • Doors, glass, door systems, and accessories: Falcon, Glynn-Johnson, Ives, Steelcraft, TGP, Trimco, Republic.
  • Electronic security, access control, time/attendance, and workforce productivity: Schlage, SimonsVoss, Interflex, ELATEC, Bricard, CISA.
  • Locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems: Schlage, CISA, Falcon, AXA, Gainsborough, Bricard.
  • Services and software: Stanley Access Technologies service; SaaS/access-control/platform-integration/workforce-management solutions through Interflex, Yonomi, Zentra, Overtur, and related offerings.

FY2025 revenue mix by category: locks/locksets/portable locks/key systems 26%; electronic security/access control/time-attendance/workforce productivity 26%; door controls/door control systems/exit devices 25%; doors/glass/door systems/accessories 16%; services/software 7%.
Source: 10-K PDF pp. 6–7.

The company operates 37 production and assembly facilities worldwide and sells through distribution, retail, e-commerce, wholesalers, and OEM channels. No single customer represented 10% or more of FY2025 net revenue; the top 10 customers represented approximately 26% of net revenue.
Source: 10-K PDF p. 11.

Dashboard company profile: Sector — Industrials; Industry — Building Products; Shares Outstanding 85,036,786; Market Cap $15.16 billion; CIK 1579241; Fiscal Year End 12-31.
Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Company Information.

4. Comparative Financial Statements — FY2025 vs FY2024

4.1 Income Statement — Item by Item

USD millionFY2025FY2024ChangeChange %Source
Net revenues4,067.33,772.2+295.1+7.8%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Cost of goods sold2,229.02,103.7+125.3+6.0%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Selling and administrative expenses978.8887.8+91.0+10.2%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Operating income859.5780.7+78.8+10.1%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Interest expense101.0102.0-1.0-1.0%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Other income, net(9.9)(20.1)+10.2n/m10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Earnings before income taxes768.4698.8+69.6+10.0%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Provision for income taxes124.6101.3+23.3+23.0%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Net earnings643.8597.5+46.3+7.8%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Diluted EPS$7.44$6.82+$0.62+9.1%10-K p. 31 / p. 54
Basic EPS$7.48$6.85+$0.63+9.2%10-K p. 54

Interpretation: Revenue growth was driven by pricing +3.1%, volume +1.0%, acquisitions/divestitures +3.1%, and FX +0.6%. Gross margin improved because COGS grew slower than revenue. S&A grew faster than revenue, largely due to inflation, restructuring/integration/acquisition expenses, and investment spending. Operating margin rose to 21.1% from 20.7%.
Source: 10-K PDF pp. 31–32.

4.2 Balance Sheet — Item by Item

USD millionDec 31, 2025Dec 31, 2024ChangeChange %Source
Cash and cash equivalents356.2503.8-147.6-29.3%10-K p. 55
Accounts and notes receivable, net437.7418.9+18.8+4.5%10-K p. 55
Inventories519.0423.0+96.0+22.7%10-K p. 55
Other current assets78.976.6+2.3+3.0%10-K p. 55
Total current assets1,391.81,422.3-30.5-2.1%10-K p. 55
Property, plant and equipment, net444.6385.3+59.3+15.4%10-K p. 55
Goodwill1,912.41,489.4+423.0+28.4%10-K p. 55
Intangible assets, net826.0569.0+257.0+45.2%10-K p. 55
Total assets5,223.74,487.8+735.9+16.4%10-K p. 55
Accounts payable244.8258.0-13.2-5.1%10-K p. 55
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities510.4417.0+93.4+22.4%10-K p. 55
Total current liabilities755.4696.9+58.5+8.4%10-K p. 55
Long-term debt1,979.91,977.6+2.3+0.1%10-K p. 55
Total liabilities3,156.12,987.1+169.0+5.7%10-K p. 55
Total equity2,067.61,500.7+566.9+37.8%10-K p. 55
Total debt (borrowings outstanding)1,980.11,999.5-19.4-1.0%10-K p. 68

Interpretation: Total assets grew 16.4%, mainly due to acquisitions — goodwill rose 28.4% and intangibles rose 45.2%. Inventory rose 22.7%, faster than revenue, which is a working-capital watch item. Equity rose 37.8%, helped by net earnings and favorable currency translation, partly offset by dividends and repurchases.
Source: 10-K PDF p. 55; acquisitions p. 63–64.

4.3 Cash Flow Statement — Item by Item

USD millionFY2025FY2024ChangeChange %Source
Net cash provided by operating activities783.8675.0+108.8+16.1%10-K p. 57
Capital expenditures(98.1)(92.1)-6.0+6.5% outflow10-K p. 57
Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired(592.2)(137.2)-455.0+331.6% outflow10-K p. 57
Net cash used in investing activities(685.5)(228.4)-457.1+200.1% outflow10-K p. 57
Net cash used in financing activities(266.7)(394.5)+127.8-32.4% outflow10-K p. 57
Dividends paid to ordinary shareholders(175.3)(167.0)-8.3+5.0% outflow10-K p. 57
Repurchase of ordinary shares(80.0)(220.0)+140.0-63.6% outflow10-K p. 57
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash+20.8(16.4)+37.2n/m10-K p. 57
Net increase (decrease) in cash(147.6)+35.7-183.3n/m10-K p. 57
Cash at end of period356.2503.8-147.6-29.3%10-K p. 57

Interpretation: Operating cash flow covered capex and dividends. The major use of cash was acquisitions ($592.2 million** in 2025 vs **$137.2 million in 2024), which explains the decline in cash despite strong CFO.
Source: 10-K PDF pp. 35, 57.

5. Nine-Month Performance at a Glance — 9M 2026 vs 9M 2025

Metric9M 20269M 2025ChangeChange %Source
Revenue3,357.73,034.1+323.6+10.7%10-Q p. 4
Gross profit (derived: revenue – COGS)1,520.21,378.8+141.4+10.3%10-Q p. 4
Operating profit734.6649.9+84.7+13.0%10-Q p. 4
Net income543.6496.3+47.3+9.5%10-Q p. 4
Basic EPS$6.36$5.76+$0.60+10.4%10-Q p. 4
Diluted EPS$6.33$5.73+$0.60+10.5%10-Q p. 4
NAVPS (total equity ÷ shares outstanding)$25.76*Not available in 10-Q——10-Q p. 5
Net cash flow per share (net increase/decrease in cash ÷ diluted shares)$0.37$(2.32)+$2.69n/mDerived: 10-Q pp. 4, 6
Cash from operations per diluted share$7.03$6.28+$0.75+11.9%Derived: 10-Q pp. 4, 6
Total assets5,466.95,223.7**+243.2+4.7%10-Q p. 5
Total equity2,172.42,067.6**+104.8+5.1%10-Q p. 5

* NAVPS at September 30, 2026 = $2,172.4 million ÷ 84.320 million shares = **$25.76. At December 31, 2025 = $2,067.6 ÷ 86.067 = **$24.02.
** Total assets/equity comparison is September 30, 2026 vs December 31, 2025, because the 10-Q does not present a September 30, 2025 balance sheet.
Source: 10-Q PDF pp. 4–6.

Q3 2026 stand-alone: revenue $1,172.6 million** (+9.6%), operating income **$284.6 million (+21.7%), net earnings $220.9 million** (+17.3%), diluted EPS **$2.59 (+18.8%).
Source: 10-Q PDF p. 4.

Dashboard cross-check — quarterly progression: Q1 2026 EPS $1.60 (net income $138.1m), Q2 2026 EPS $2.15 ($184.6m), Q3 2026 EPS $2.60 ($220.9m). The Q1 YoY decline (-6.98%) reversed strongly in Q2 (+15.59%) and Q3 (+18.72%), confirming an accelerating earnings trajectory.
Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Reported Financial History.

6. Ratio Analysis

6.1 Liquidity

RatioFY2025FY2024ChangeIndustry Avg (USA)Source
Current ratio1.84x2.04x-9.8%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 55
Quick ratio: (current assets – inventory) / current liabilities1.16x1.43x-19.5%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 55
Cash ratio: cash / current liabilities0.47x0.72x-34.8%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 55
Working capital$636.4m$725.4m-12.3%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 55

9M 2026: current ratio 1.90x vs 1.84x at Dec 31, 2025; quick ratio 1.24x vs 1.16x; cash ratio 0.47x vs 0.47x. Liquidity improved modestly, but inventory remains higher.
Source: Derived from 10-Q p. 5.

6.2 Solvency and Leverage

RatioFY2025FY2024ChangeIndustry Avg (USA)Source
Total debt / equity0.96x1.33x-28.1%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 55, 68
Total debt / total assets37.9%44.6%-15.0%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 55, 68
Liabilities / equity1.53x1.99x-23.3%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 55
Net debt / EBITDA1.64x1.66x-1.2%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 54–57
Interest coverage (operating income / interest expense)8.51x7.65x+11.2%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 54

9M 2026: total debt / equity 0.94x vs 0.96x at Dec 31, 2025; total debt / assets 37.2% vs 37.9%; net debt / 9M EBITDA 1.95x (unannualized) vs 1.64x FY2025; interest coverage 10.03x vs 8.56x for 9M 2025.
Source: Derived from 10-Q pp. 4–6, 11.

6.3 Profitability

RatioFY2025FY2024ChangeIndustry Avg (USA)Source
Gross margin45.2%44.2%+0.9 ppNot in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 54
Operating margin21.1%20.7%+0.4 ppNot in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 54
Net margin15.8%15.8%~flatNot in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K p. 54
ROA (ending assets)12.3%13.3%-7.3%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 54–55
ROE (ending equity)31.1%39.8%-21.8%Not in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 54–55
EBITDA margin24.4%23.9%+0.5 ppNot in 10-K/10-QDerived: 10-K pp. 54–57

9M 2026: gross margin 45.28% vs 45.44% in 9M 2025; operating margin 21.88% vs 21.42%; net margin 16.19% vs 16.36%. Q3 2026 gross margin improved to 46.75% from 45.77%.
Source: Derived from 10-Q pp. 4, 24–25.

Dashboard cross-check — trailing profitability: Gross Margin 45.09% (trend ▼ -0.26%), Operating Margin 24.25% (trend ▼ -0.12%), ROE 33.56% (trend ▼ -0.66%), ROA 11.19% (trend ▼ -0.29%), ROIC 19.73% (trend ▼ -0.28%). These dashboard values blend quarterly performance and may differ slightly from period-specific 10-Q calculations.
Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Profitability & Margins.

6.4 Efficiency — Turnover in Days

Days are calculated on ending balances for comparability; 9M uses 270 days.

MetricFY2025FY2024Change9M 20269M 2025ChangeSource
Inventory days (inventory / COGS × days)85.073.4+15.8%79.384.7-6.4%Derived: 10-K p. 55; 10-Q p. 5
Receivable days (AR / revenue × days)39.340.5-3.0%44.438.9+14.1%Derived: 10-K p. 55; 10-Q p. 5
Payable days (AP / COGS × days)40.144.8-10.5%41.639.9+4.3%Derived: 10-K p. 55; 10-Q p. 5
Cash conversion cycle84.269.1+21.9%82.183.7-1.9%Derived

Interpretation: FY2025 inventory days rose sharply, partly due to acquisitions and working-capital build. 9M 2026 improved inventory days but receivable days increased, so the cash conversion cycle remains elevated.
Source: Derived from 10-K p. 55 and 10-Q p. 5.

6.5 Market / Per-Share Ratios

MetricFY2025FY2024ChangeSource
Basic EPS$7.48$6.85+9.2%10-K p. 54
Diluted EPS$7.44$6.82+9.1%10-K p. 54
Dividends declared per share$2.04$1.92+6.3%10-K p. 56
Dividend payout (dividends paid / net earnings)27.2%28.0%-0.8 ppDerived: 10-K pp. 54, 57
Book value per share$24.02$17.40+38.0%Derived: 10-K p. 55
P/E ratioNot calculable from filingsNot calculable—No stock price in 10-K/10-Q
Market PE (dashboard)22.17x——Capital Insight BD Dashboard
Forward PE (dashboard)17.68x——Capital Insight BD Dashboard
PEG (dashboard)2.26 (“Expensive”)——Capital Insight BD Dashboard

9M 2026: dividends paid $1.65/share**; repurchases **$280.3 million; book value per share $25.76 at Sep 30, 2026.
Source: 10-Q pp. 5, 6, 16, 23.

7. Market Performance & Valuation Dashboard (NEW)

This section incorporates market, valuation, and risk data from the Capital Insight BD S&P 500 Stock Analysis Master Dashboard, covering the analysis period 2026-01-01 → 2026-10-26.

7.1 Market Snapshot

MetricValueDate / Note
Current Price$178.222026-10-26
Period High$183.112026-02-12
Period Low$125.002026-05-20
Period Return+10.76%2026 YTD through Oct 26
Annualized Volatility32.36%Period
Market Cap$15.16 billionAs of dashboard date
Average Volume968,369Period
Trading Days204Period
Shares Outstanding85,036,786Dashboard Company Info

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Market Snapshot & Company Information.

Interpretation: The stock experienced a wide **$58.11 range** (~46.5% from low to high), reflecting high volatility. The May 2026 low of $125.00 coincided with broader market stress; the stock recovered 42.6% from that low to the current $178.22. The period high of $183.11 (Feb 12) is only 2.7% above the current price, suggesting the stock is trading near its period highs but has not broken out.

7.2 Composite Scores

ScoreValue (0–100)Interpretation
Valuation Score50.5Neutral — multiples are mid-range
Quality Score35.4Below average — high leverage and goodwill weigh
Growth Score66.0Above average — EPS trend is strong
Composite Score50.6Neutral / balanced overall

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Composite Scores.

7.3 Valuation Metrics

MetricValueHistorical Context
PE Ratio22.17x87.3rd percentile of 205 observations; historical average 20.01x
Forward PE17.68xImplies market expects NTM EPS ≈ $10.08
PEG Ratio2.26Flagged “Expensive” (>2 threshold)
PB Ratio6.92x—
PS Ratio3.45x—
EV / EBITDA15.35x—
EV / Revenue3.84x—

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Valuation Metrics.

Interpretation: On an absolute basis, the stock is not cheap — PE at the 87.3rd percentile of its own history and PEG of 2.26 suggest the market is pricing in substantial future growth. However, relative to the Industrials sector (see Section 8), Allegion trades at a significant discount. The forward PE of 17.68x implies meaningful EPS expansion is expected; our Section 16 projection of FY2026 EPS ≈ $8.50 is consistent with a forward PE of ~21x, suggesting the market may be pricing FY2027 EPS of ~$10.08.

7.4 Risk & Volatility Metrics

MetricValue
PE Volatility (Annualized)32.42%
PE Max Drawdown-29.44%
PE Mean20.01
PE Median19.74
PE Std Dev1.69
PE Min17.04
PE Max24.15
Observations205

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Risk & Valuation Volatility.

Interpretation: The PE band of 17.04x–24.15x with a standard deviation of only 1.69x suggests the market has historically valued Allegion within a relatively tight multiple range. The current PE of 22.17x is near the upper end of this band (about 1.28 standard deviations above the mean), which may cap near-term multiple expansion unless earnings surprise positively.

7.5 Stock Performance vs S&P 500

MetricAllegion (ALLE)S&P 500Delta
Total Return (period)+10.76%+11.93%-1.17 pp
Annualized Return+13.45%+14.86%-1.41 pp
Volatility32.28%12.92%+19.36 pp
Correlation0.163——
Win Rate (daily)48.53%——

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Stock Performance vs S&P 500.

Interpretation: Allegion underperformed the S&P 500 by 1.17 percentage points over the period, with 2.5x the index volatility. The very low correlation (0.163) indicates the stock is largely driven by company-specific and sector-specific factors rather than broad market beta — this is a diversification positive for portfolio construction but means the stock offers little “market-like” exposure. The 48.53% daily win rate is essentially a coin flip, confirming no persistent short-term momentum edge.

7.6 Year-over-Year Monthly High & Low Summary

YearLowest Avg MonthLowest Avg PriceMonth-End PriceHighest Avg MonthHighest Avg PriceMonth-End Price
2024June$114.11$115.11October$143.87$138.07
2025March$127.29$129.98September$174.42$177.35
2026May$131.36$130.07February$168.39$161.15

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Yearly Summary.

Interpretation: The pattern shows a consistent seasonal weakness in Q2 (June 2024, March 2025, May 2026) and strength in H2 (October 2024, September 2025), with 2026 showing an unusually strong February followed by a May dip and subsequent recovery. This seasonality is consistent with construction/remodeling cycles noted in the 10-K (higher sales in Q2/Q3 in the Northern Hemisphere).
Source cross-reference: 10-K p. 12 (Seasonality).

8. Sector Comparison & Relative Valuation (NEW)

The dashboard compares Allegion against 83 Industrials sector peers.

8.1 Valuation Multiples vs Sector

MetricAllegionIndustrials Sector AvgDeltaRelative Position
PE Ratio22.17x33.44x-33.71%Discount
PB Ratio6.92x8.23x-15.96%Discount
PS Ratio3.45x3.75x-7.86%Discount

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Sector Comparison.

8.2 Profitability vs Sector

MetricAllegionIndustrials Sector AvgDeltaRelative Position
ROE33.56%31.31%+7.17%Premium
ROA11.19%8.35%+33.99%Strong Premium
ROIC19.73%18.66%+5.73%Premium
Gross Margin45.09%35.55%+26.84%Strong Premium
Operating Margin24.25%18.31%+32.46%Strong Premium

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Sector Comparison.

Interpretation — the core investment insight: Allegion is a higher-quality business trading at a lower multiple than the average Industrials peer. It earns 950 basis points more gross margin, 594 bps more operating margin, and 284 bps more ROA than the sector, yet trades at a 33.71% PE discount. This quality-at-a-discount profile is the strongest argument for the stock. The caveat: the sector average is skewed by lower-quality, lower-margin Industrials names; Allegion’s own historical PE average (20.01x) suggests it is currently priced above its own norm even if cheap relative to peers.
Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard; 10-K p. 54 for margin cross-check.

9. Shareholding Structure & Ownership (NEW)

9.1 Ownership Summary by Category

DateOwnership TypeSharesValue (USD)% Held
2026-09-30Institutional38,936,698$5,859,194,14445.79%
2026-09-30Mutual Fund15,631,672$2,352,253,93018.38%
2026-09-30Insider287,369$0 (reported)0.34%

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Ownership Summary by Category.

9.2 Top Institutional Holders

HolderSharesValue (USD)% Held
BlackRock Inc.6,806,953$1,024,310,2588.00%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC5,621,944$845,990,1096.61%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC4,953,114$745,344,5735.82%
Boston Partners4,645,278$699,021,4135.46%
State Street Corporation4,344,088$653,698,3435.11%
Kayne Anderson Rudnick3,390,592$510,216,2693.99%
Geode Capital Management2,895,905$435,775,7723.41%
Invesco Ltd.2,292,541$344,981,5592.70%
Massachusetts Financial Services2,220,158$334,089,3662.61%
Deutsche Bank AG1,766,125$265,766,4822.08%

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Top 10 Holders per Category.

9.3 Top Mutual Fund Holders

FundSharesValue (USD)% Held
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund2,730,018$410,813,0963.21%
Vanguard 500 Index Fund2,226,863$335,098,3342.62%
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund1,970,142$296,466,9592.32%
John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund1,698,147$255,537,1532.00%
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF1,461,409$219,912,8201.72%

Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Top 10 Holders per Category.

Interpretation: Ownership is heavily institutionalized (45.79% institutional + 18.38% mutual funds = 64.17% held by professional managers). The presence of Vanguard Total Stock Market and S&P 500 Index funds confirms Allegion’s inclusion in major benchmarks (added to S&P 500 on 2013-12-02 per dashboard). The John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund (2.00%) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (1.72%) suggest value-oriented and equal-weight strategies see merit in the name. Insider ownership of 0.34% is low but not unusual for a spun-off company; CEO John H. Stone holds 152,405 shares (0.18%).

10. Opportunities and Threats for Investors

Opportunities

  1. Electronic security and access-control growth: Electronic products revenue increased low-double-digits in 2025; management calls electronics a long-term growth driver.
    Source: 10-K p. 34.
  2. Acquisition-led expansion: ELATEC, Trimco, Gatewise, Waitwhile, UAP, Brisant, DCI, and Overly broaden electronics, software, door systems, and international reach.
    Source: 10-K pp. 63–64; 10-Q pp. 7–8.
  3. Software/SaaS and services mix: Services/software revenue was $278.3 million** in FY2025 and **$216.7 million in 9M 2026, with recurring/aftermarket characteristics.
    Source: 10-K p. 84; 10-Q p. 20.
  4. Pricing and productivity: Pricing contributed +3.1% to FY2025 revenue and +3.9% to 9M 2026 revenue; productivity offset inflation.
    Source: 10-K p. 31; 10-Q p. 26.
  5. Tariff refund benefit: 9M 2026 operating income included $19.9 million of IEEPA tariff refund benefits. This is a cash/earnings tailwind but may not recur.
    Source: 10-Q p. 23.
  6. Strong cash generation and buyback capacity: CFO was $783.8 million** in FY2025 and **$604.0 million in 9M 2026. The share repurchase program had $260.3 million remaining at Sep 30, 2026.
    Source: 10-K p. 57; 10-Q p. 36.
  7. Pension funded status: All pension plans were 103.0% funded at Dec 31, 2025, up from 101.1%.
    Source: 10-K p. 37.
  8. Quality at a sector discount (dashboard): Allegion trades at a 33.71% PE discount to Industrials peers while earning 594 bps higher operating margin and 284 bps higher ROA — a rare quality/value combination.
    Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard — Sector Comparison.

Threats

  1. Cyclical construction/remodeling demand: weakness in institutional, commercial, or residential markets could reduce demand.
    Source: 10-K pp. 14–15.
  2. Tariffs and trade policy: Allegion sources roughly 20–25% of COGS from Mexico, <5% from China, and 5–10% from other non-U.S. countries. New tariffs could pressure margins if not offset by pricing.
    Source: 10-K p. 15; 10-Q p. 23.
  3. FX volatility: approximately 25% of 2025 net revenue was outside the U.S.; currency translation can affect reported results.
    Source: 10-K p. 16.
  4. Goodwill/intangibles impairment: goodwill $1,912.4 million** and indefinite-lived intangibles **$107.2 million at Dec 31, 2025. A significant decline in reporting-unit fair value could trigger impairment.
    Source: 10-K pp. 16, 39, 67.
  5. Leverage and variable-rate debt: total debt $2.0 billion**; **$190.6 million outstanding under the Revolving Facility at Dec 31, 2025, and $240.9 million** at Sep 30, 2026. A 1% rate increase would add about **$2.0 million annual interest expense based on Dec 31, 2025 balances.
    Source: 10-K p. 41; 10-Q p. 11.
  6. Acquisition integration risk: purchase accounting is incomplete for some 2026 acquisitions; earnout contingent consideration was $30.3 million for 2025 acquisitions.
    Source: 10-K p. 64; 10-Q p. 8.
  7. Customer concentration: top 10 customers ≈26% of FY2025 revenue.
    Source: 10-K p. 11.
  8. Cybersecurity/privacy: increasing AI-enabled threats and regulatory reporting obligations.
    Source: 10-K pp. 20–21.
  9. Tax risk: effective tax rate rose to 18.5% in 9M 2026 from 15.1%; Pillar II, transfer pricing, and Irish tax changes are risks.
    Source: 10-Q p. 20; 10-K pp. 23–24, 80–82.
  10. Environmental/product liability: environmental reserves $22.7 million** at Dec 31, 2025 and **$19.5 million at Sep 30, 2026; warranty liability $26.2 million** and **$25.3 million, respectively.
    Source: 10-K p. 85; 10-Q p. 21.
  11. Valuation risk (dashboard): PE at 87.3rd percentile of its own history and PEG of 2.26 — the stock is priced for continued execution.
    Source: Capital Insight BD Dashboard.

11. Audit Objections / Observations

  • PwC issued an unqualified opinion on the FY2025 consolidated financial statements and on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 52–53.
  • The critical audit matter is revenue recognition, due to the high degree of auditor effort and judgment in testing product and service/software revenue. This is a disclosure of audit complexity, not an audit objection, qualification, or material weakness.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 52–53.
  • Management concluded disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting were effective as of Dec 31, 2025. No changes materially affected internal control in Q4 2025.
    Source: 10-K PDF pp. 42–43.
  • No going-concern qualification appears in the attached filings.
    Source: 10-K PDF p. 52.

Impact on future earnings: None directly from the audit opinion. The revenue-recognition CAM is a monitoring point; if controls or estimates deteriorate, restatement risk could affect reputation and earnings, but no such issue is disclosed.

12. Litigation — Current Position and What-If Analysis

Current position

  • Allegion states that pending legal matters are not expected to have a material adverse effect on results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, or cash flows.
    Source: 10-K p. 27; 10-Q p. 36.
  • Environmental reserves: $22.7 million** at Dec 31, 2025; **$19.5 million at Sep 30, 2026.
    Source: 10-K p. 85; 10-Q p. 21.
  • Standard product warranty liability: $26.2 million** at Dec 31, 2025; **$25.3 million at Sep 30, 2026.
    Source: 10-K p. 85; 10-Q p. 21.

What-if EPS sensitivity (hypothetical, not company guidance)

Using 9M 2026 diluted shares of 85.9 million and an assumed 18.5% tax rate:

Hypothetical adverse outcome above reservesPre-tax impactAfter-tax impactEPS impact
$10 million$10.0m$8.15m$0.09
$25 million$25.0m$20.38m$0.24
$50 million$50.0m$40.75m$0.47
Full environmental reserve ($19.5m)$19.5m$15.89m$0.18
Full warranty liability ($25.3m)$25.3m$20.62m$0.24

Interpretation: The disclosed reserves are not individually large relative to Allegion’s earnings. A $50 million** adverse judgment above reserves would reduce EPS by roughly **$0.47, which is material but not catastrophic. The company does not disclose a reasonably possible loss range.
Source: Derived from 10-Q pp. 4, 21; 10-K p. 85.

13. Future Earnings — What-If Analysis on Key Issues

IssueDisclosed dataWhat-if impactEPS sensitivity
Tariff refunds9M 2026 operating income includes $19.9m benefitIf not repeated, after-tax earnings lower by ~$16.2m~$0.19
Variable-rate debt$190.6m at Dec 31, 2025; 1% increase = **$2.0m** more interestAfter-tax ~$1.63m~$0.02
Effective tax rate9M 2026 18.5% vs 15.1%Each +1 pp on 9M pretax $667.2m = ~$6.67m tax~$0.08
Goodwill impairmentGoodwill $1,912.4m at Dec 31, 2025A hypothetical 10% impairment = $191.2m~$2.23 (if non-deductible)
Restructuring9M 2026 charges **$13.8m**; reserve $6.1mAdditional $10m pre-tax charge~$0.09
Acquisition integration2025 acquisitions $631.6m; 2026 DCI $69.3m, Overly $88.7mIntegration costs/earnout could pressure near-term EPSNot quantified in filings

Source: 10-Q pp. 4, 15, 19–20, 23; 10-K pp. 41, 64, 67.
These are sensitivity illustrations, not company forecasts.

14. Related-Party Transactions

The 10-K guarantor financial information discloses intercompany transactions with related parties and subsidiaries:

USD millionFY2025 Allegion plcFY2025 Allegion US Hold Co9M 2026 Allegion plc9M 2026 Allegion US Hold Co
Net earnings643.8362.0543.6321.3
Transactions with related parties and subsidiaries(27.4)(92.1)(14.9)(66.9)

These transactions include intercompany interest and fees.
Source: 10-K PDF p. 38; 10-Q PDF p. 33.

Balances at Sep 30, 2026:

USD millionAllegion plcAllegion US Hold Co
Due from related parties — current0.5802.2
Due from related parties — noncurrent—1,297.1
Due to related parties — current371.91,076.3
Due to related parties — noncurrent278.72,324.6

Source: 10-Q PDF p. 33.

Risk: The structure relies on intercompany funding and guarantees; the notes are structurally subordinated to subsidiary liabilities. Opportunity: centralised financing supports acquisitions and liquidity.

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15. Investments in Other Companies

  • Equity-method affiliates: $15.5 million** at Dec 31, 2025 vs **$13.7 million at Dec 31, 2024.
    Source: 10-K p. 59.
  • Debt/equity securities without readily determinable fair values: $66.8 million** at Dec 31, 2025 and **$66.9 million at Dec 31, 2024.
    Source: 10-K p. 59.
  • At Sep 30, 2026, such investments were $130.6 million**, including an additional **$40.0 million investment in Ambient.ai in Q3 2026.
    Source: 10-Q p. 15.

Risk: These are illiquid/valuation-sensitive; impairment charges are possible. Opportunity: access to emerging security technology and channel relationships.

16. FY2026 Forecast: Revenue, Net Income, EPS, and Target Price (NEW — Special Section)

This section is a projection, not company guidance. The attached 10-K and 10-Q contain no management forecast or target price. The projections below use disclosed 9M 2026 actuals, FY2025 quarterly seasonality, and stated assumptions. Investors should treat these as analytical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

16.1 Methodology

  1. Q4 2026 revenue = Q4 2025 actual ($1,033.2m) × (1 + 9M 2026 revenue growth rate of 10.7%) = **$1,143.7m**.
  2. Q4 2026 net income = Q4 2026 revenue × 9M 2026 net margin (16.19%) = $185.2m.
  3. Q4 2026 diluted EPS = $185.2m ÷ 85.9m diluted shares = **$2.16**.
  4. FY2026 totals = 9M 2026 actuals + Q4 2026 projections.
  5. Target price = FY2026E diluted EPS × applied PE multiple.

16.2 FY2026 Projection Table

Metric9M 2026 ActualQ4 2026 ProjectionFY2026 ProjectionFY2025 ActualYoY Change
Revenue$3,357.7m$1,143.7m$4,501.4m$4,067.3m+10.7%
Net Income$543.6m$185.2m$728.8m$643.8m+13.2%
Diluted EPS$6.33$2.16$8.49$7.44+14.1%
Diluted Shares85.9m85.9m (assumed)85.9m86.6m—

Sources: 9M actuals from 10-Q p. 4; Q4 2025 revenue derived from 10-K p. 54 (FY2025 $4,067.3m − 9M 2025 $3,034.1m = $1,033.2m). Projection is author’s calculation.

16.3 Target Price Scenarios

ScenarioMultiple AppliedBasisTarget PriceUpside/(Downside) vs $178.22
Conservative20.0xHistorical PE mean (dashboard)$169.80-4.7%
Base Case22.17xCurrent market PE (dashboard)$188.23+5.6%
Optimistic24.15xHistorical PE max (dashboard)$205.03+15.0%
Sector Parity33.44xIndustrials sector avg PE$283.91+59.3% (unlikely near-term)

Source: Multiples from Capital Insight BD Dashboard; EPS projection from Section 16.2.

16.4 Key Assumptions and Risks to Forecast

Assumptions:

  • Q4 2026 revenue grows at the same 10.7% rate as 9M 2026.
  • Net margin holds at 16.19% (9M 2026 level).
  • Diluted share count stays at ~85.9 million.
  • No major one-time charges in Q4 2026.
  • Tariff refunds ($19.9m in 9M) are not repeated in Q4.

Key risks to the forecast:

  • Upside: Faster electronic-product growth, further acquisition contributions, additional tariff refunds, FX tailwinds.
  • Downside: Construction slowdown, new tariff costs, acquisition integration charges, higher effective tax rate, share count reduction from buybacks (which would raise EPS).
  • Buyback effect: If Allegion repurchases ~$100m of stock in Q4 at ~$178/share (~562k shares), diluted shares could fall to ~85.3m, raising EPS by ~$0.02.

16.5 Cross-Check Against Dashboard

MetricDashboardOur FY2026 ProjectionConsistency Check
Forward PE17.68x$178.22 ÷ $8.49 = 21.0xDashboard forward PE implies NTM EPS ≈ $10.08; our FY2026E of $8.49 suggests market is pricing FY2027 EPS of ~$10.08 (18.7% growth) — plausible given 9M 2026 EPS growth of 10.5% plus buybacks.
PEG Ratio2.26$22.17 ÷ 9.8% EPS growth = 2.26Consistent: market PE 22.17 ÷ 5Y EPS CAGR 17.01% = 1.30; ÷ near-term growth ~9.8% = 2.26. Dashboard PEG uses near-term growth.
EPS Annual YoY Growth9.20% (FY2025)+14.1% (FY2026E)Our projection assumes acceleration, supported by 9M 2026 EPS growth of 10.5% and Q3 acceleration to 18.8%.
Latest Reported EPS$2.60 (Q3 2026)Q4 2026E = $2.16Q4 is seasonally lower than Q3 (Q4 2025 EPS was ~$1.71 vs Q3 2025 $2.19; Q4 2024 ~$1.78 vs Q3 2024 $2.00). Our $2.16 is above Q4 2025 by 26%, consistent with the 14% FY growth trajectory.

Sources: Capital Insight BD Dashboard; 10-Q p. 4; 10-K p. 54; author calculations.

16.6 Forecast Summary

  • FY2026E Revenue: ~$4.50 billion (+10.7% YoY)
  • FY2026E Net Income: ~$729 million (+13.2% YoY)
  • FY2026E Diluted EPS: ~$8.49 (+14.1% YoY)
  • Base-case target price: $188 (22.17x FY2026E EPS)
  • Conservative target: $170 (20.0x)
  • Optimistic target: $205 (24.15x)

17. Other Important Issues

  1. Debt maturity profile: no significant 2026 maturity; $400m 2027 notes, $400m 2029 notes, $600m 2032 notes, $400m 2034 notes, and $240.9m revolver at Sep 30, 2026.
    Source: 10-Q p. 11; 10-K p. 69.
  2. Share repurchases: FY2025 repurchases $80.0m**; 9M 2026 **$280.3m; remaining authorization $260.3m at Sep 30, 2026.
    Source: 10-K p. 28; 10-Q p. 36.
  3. Dividends: FY2025 dividends paid $175.3m**; 9M 2026 **$140.2m; quarterly dividend $0.55 declared Feb 2026.
    Source: 10-K p. 28; 10-Q p. 23.
  4. Restructuring: 9M 2026 charges $13.8m, primarily workforce reductions in International and Americas.
    Source: 10-Q p. 19.
  5. Pension settlement: $3.7m settlement charge in 9M 2026 related to U.S. pension annuity purchase.
    Source: 10-Q p. 13.
  6. Customer concentration: top 10 customers ≈26% of FY2025 revenue; no single customer >10%.
    Source: 10-K p. 11.
  7. Segment performance: 9M 2026 Americas operating margin 29.1% vs 28.5%; International 5.9% vs 7.7%, reflecting volume/mix and restructuring.
    Source: 10-Q pp. 22, 27–30.

18. Source Reference Map

SectionPrimary PDF / Dashboard page references
Business overview10-K pp. 6–12; 10-Q p. 23; Dashboard Company Info
FY2025 income statement10-K pp. 31, 54
FY2025 balance sheet10-K p. 55
FY2025 cash flow10-K pp. 35, 57
9M 2026 results10-Q pp. 4–6, 24–26; Dashboard Reported Financial History
Ratio analysisDerived from 10-K pp. 54–57, 68; 10-Q pp. 4–6, 11
Market performance & valuationDashboard — Market Snapshot, Composite Scores, Valuation Metrics, Risk & Volatility, Stock vs S&P 500, Yearly Summary
Sector comparisonDashboard — Sector Comparison (Industrials, 83 peers)
Shareholding structureDashboard — Ownership Summary, Top 10 Holders
Opportunities/threats10-K pp. 14–24, 30–35; 10-Q pp. 23–26; Dashboard
Audit opinion / CAM10-K pp. 52–53
Internal controls10-K pp. 42–43; 10-Q p. 35
Litigation / contingencies10-K pp. 27, 84–85; 10-Q pp. 21, 36
Related-party transactions10-K p. 38; 10-Q p. 33
Investments10-K p. 59; 10-Q p. 15
FY2026 forecast10-Q p. 4; 10-K p. 54; Dashboard Valuation Metrics; author calculations
Debt10-K pp. 36, 68–69; 10-Q p. 11
Acquisitions10-K pp. 63–64; 10-Q pp. 7–8
Equity / buybacks / dividends10-K pp. 28, 56, 77; 10-Q pp. 16, 23, 36

19. Data Source Attribution

This report integrates three data sources:

SourceData ProvidedUsed In Sections
Allegion FY2025 Form 10-KAudited financial statements, business description, risk factors, audit opinion, contingencies, related-party transactions, investments1–6, 10–15, 17
Allegion Q3 2026 Form 10-QUnaudited 9M 2026 financials, Q3 segment data, debt, acquisitions, contingencies, subsequent events5–6, 10–15, 16–17
Capital Insight BD Dashboard (market data sourced via YFinance and related feeds)Current price, period returns, volatility, PE/Forward PE/PEG/PB/PS/EV multiples, sector averages (Industrials, 83 peers), ownership data, yearly high/low summary, quarterly EPS history, composite scores2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 16

Specific dashboard-only metrics (not available in 10-K/10-Q): Forward PE (17.68x), PEG Ratio (2.26), PB Ratio (6.92x), PS Ratio (3.45x), EV/EBITDA (15.35x), EV/Revenue (3.84x), PE Percentile (87.3%), sector comparison averages, ownership breakdown, stock return vs S&P 500, correlation, composite scores, and yearly high/low summary. These are explicitly labeled throughout the report.

Cross-check note: Dashboard profitability metrics (e.g., Gross Margin 45.09%, Operating Margin 24.25%) may differ slightly from 10-Q-derived period figures (Gross Margin 45.28%, Operating Margin 21.88%) because the dashboard uses trailing data and different period weighting. Both are reported transparently.

20. Disclaimer

This report is for information and educational purposes only. It is based on the attached Allegion plc Form 10-K for FY2025, Form 10-Q for Q3 2026, and the Capital Insight BD dashboard data (market data sourced via YFinance and related feeds). It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell securities. The FY2026 forecast in Section 16 is a projection based on stated assumptions, not company guidance or a guarantee of future performance. Ratios and what-if sensitivities are analytical calculations. Investors should verify all figures against the original SEC filings, the dashboard, and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Md Kollol Hossain
CEO, CapitalinsightBD
info@capitalinsightbd.com